Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies have entered a consolidation phase in the past few weeks as investors reflect on the recently approved spot ETFs. BTC has been stuck at $43,000 while most altcoins have pulled back by double digits. As I wrote on Monday, the crypto fear and greed index has moved to the neutral point. This article highlights two key catalysts that could have an impact on Bitcoin, BitBot, and Ethereum in 2024.
Bitcoin halving in April
The first important catalyst that could benefit Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BitBot is the upcoming halving event, which is set for April. Halving is a situation where Bitcoin rewards are slashed into half. In this case, the number of Bitcoin daily rewards will drop from 900 to about 400.
Halving is an important mechanism because it ensures the balance between supply and reward. If this halving was not embedded in the software, the number of coins in circulation would be substantially higher.
Historically, the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies tend to do well ahead of a halving event. The same could happen this year. If this happens, the coin will likely rise and then push other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, Cardano, and Solana much higher.
Remember that this halving comes a few months after the SEC approved eleven spot Bitcoin ETFs. This means that the halving event will coincide with a period of moderate strong demand for the biggest crypto in the world.
Federal Reserve rate cuts
The other important catalyst for BitBot, Bitcoin, and other coins is the upcoming interest rates as inflation retreats. Most Fed officials have sounded supportive of rate cuts later this year. However, they have also pushed back against the view that cuts will start in March.
This view is reasonable since the recent economic numbers show that the US is thriving, with wages rising and the unemployment rate being low. The economy also expanded by 3.3% in the fourth quarter, beating the median estimate of 2.2%.
Therefore, it makes sense that the Fed is waiting for the economy and inflation to cool before starting rate cuts. What is clear, however, is that the Fed will start cutting rates in the second half of the year. In most cases, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies tend to do well when the Fed is cutting rates.
Ethereum ETF approval
Further, there are signs that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot Ethereum ETF. Some analysts expect the agency to make this approval by May of this year. If this happens, it will lead to more inflows from institutional investors as we have seen with Bitcoin.
However, there are risks that the SEC will not do that because BTC and ETH are significantly different assets. The SEC believes that Ethereum is a security because of its staking features. It sees Bitcoin as a digital commodity. Still, the anticipation of this ETF approval will likely push these coins higher.
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